Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has something to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
